As fall 2025 data roll in, some college and university leaders may be breathing a sigh of relief. Undergraduate enrollment is up at many institutions, in fact some are reporting record enrollment, making talk of the “demographic cliff” feel like old news.

But that relief is misplaced. The cliff was never supposed to begin in 2025. It begins in 2026 — and what’s coming isn’t a sudden drop, but a long, uneven demographic shift that will reshape higher education for decades.

In From Demographic Cliffs to Demographic Shifts: How Higher Ed Can Prepare for What’s Next, I examine new data from WICHE, IPEDS, NAEP, and the U.S. Census Bureau that reveal a fuller picture than what I presented last year on my Two Cliffs white paper. What we see on the horizon is a gradual, regionally varied decline in the target population for traditional undergraduate education, compounded by the rise of underprepared students, shifting racial and ethnic demographics, and a rising skepticism about higher ed among this very population.

If your institution grew enrollment this year, you’ve successfully navigated a host of short-term challenges — but not the demographic wave ahead. The institutions that thrive won’t be those celebrating survival; they’ll be those planning transformational moves like:

• Focusing graduate program expansion on fully online programs.

• Dramatically increasing access to online courses in on-campus undergrad programs.

• Aligning programs – and program language – with today’s student needs and concerns.

• Engaging the “Some College, No Credential” audience with appropriate programming.

• Integrating AI into both the curriculum and the processes of the institution.

Now is the time to diversify student audiences, differentiate program offerings, and digitalize delivery. The next era of enrollment success will belong to those who understand the shift—not those who fear the cliff.

Download the full report to read about all of these strategies and see the supporting data.