Every fall, higher education leaders brace themselves for the release of new enrollment numbers — and this year’s preliminary data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) is no exception. While the full dataset will arrive in January, the early figures, drawn from roughly half of U.S. institutions, are already painting a revealing picture of where growth is happening — and where it isn’t.

The surface-level story is simple: enrollment is up. But the real insights lie beneath the aggregate numbers. Let’s work from two visualizations from the report:

Visualization 1:

Source: Preliminary Fall Enrollment Trends 2025. National Student Clearinghouse. 11/11/2025.

The New Growth Engine: Certificates and Associate Degrees

Most of the growth is being driven by undergraduate certificates and associate degrees — and primarily by community colleges. For four-year institutions, this trend demands careful interpretation, not imitation.

Yes, certificates are having a moment. But launching dozens of new short-term programs is not a silver bullet. Marketing a certificate costs nearly as much as marketing a degree, often for a fraction of the return. The smarter play is strategic alignment: build certificates within high-demand degree programs like business and health care, where existing faculty, content, and SEO efforts can pull double duty. These “nested” credentials allow universities to compete in the short-term market while reinforcing their longer-term degree pathways.

Don’t Overread the Graduate Numbers

It’s tempting to interpret the modest dip in master’s enrollments or the bump in doctoral programs as a signal of changing tides. But the data deserve nuance. Master’s Fall enrollment data never tells the full picture because so many students begin outside the traditional fall cycle — more than a million each year. Meanwhile, doctoral enrollment remains relatively stable, but the notion of an upward surge doesn’t align with broader sector trends. The message? Stay vigilant, focus on high-demand fields, add online programming in these high demand fields, and evaluate programs in annual, not semester-bound, terms.

Graduate Programs Reflect the Market Like Never Before

Visualization 2:

Source: Preliminary Fall Enrollment Trends 2025 Report. National Student Clearinghouse. 11/11/2025.

Perhaps the most striking insight from this fall’s data is how tightly graduate enrollment trends now mirror broader market sentiment (note I am not discounting undergraduate trends here, just not addressing them). Health professions have officially taken the lead at the graduate level — marking the first time these programs have superceded business programs. It’s a clear signal that prospective students are reading and hearing about the continued demand for advanced clinical and administrative expertise. The growth in social service and psychology programs (albeit starting from a far smaller “n”) also indicate that prospective graduate students have their “ear to the ground.”

Yet, this shift also exposes a policy blind spot. The U.S. Department of Education’s recent decision not to classify programs like Nurse Practitioner, Physician Assistant, and Physical Therapy under the “professional programs” umbrella (thereby qualifying for higher loan limits) misrepresents how the market — and students — actually view these credentials. While I don’t support the idea of higher loan limits for programs that will never result in truly high salaries, each of these excluded programs earn strong wages (with documented starting salaries above $100K).

Just as telling is the sharp decline in computer science–related programs. For two decades, these were among the fastest-growing areas in higher education. Now, amid rapid advances in AI and automation, many prospective students see the field as oversaturated or at risk — a perception that may or may not reflect reality, but one that institutions must contend with.

Business and Beyond

Business programs continue to hold their ground, maintaining steady growth even as their share of the overall graduate market contracts slightly. But the growth story here is increasingly an online one. Data from GMAC and AACSB confirm that virtual delivery now dominates business education, underscoring how flexibility, accessibility, and professional relevance continue to reshape graduate demand.

The Takeaway

These early numbers reaffirm what many in higher education already suspect: enrollment growth isn’t uniform, and it’s being driven by institutions (and students) who are responding — quickly and rationally — to labor market signals. For institutional leaders, the challenge is clear: invest in programs that reflect the evolving aspirations of learners and the realities of the workforce, but do so with strategic precision, not reactive expansion.

The fall data are a mirror. The question is whether institutions are ready to look closely enough to see their own reflection — and respond accordingly.