The Some College, No Credential population has increased again as a target for savvy institutions! National Student Clearinghouse reports that an additional 800k (+2.2%) students left before completing a credential in 2023-24, and a total of more than 2.1M left between January 2022 and July 2023 . While there are all kinds of implications for student retention efforts, I decided to look at where these students are most likely to re-enroll. I was hoping that by better understanding where they most often re-enroll we could learn more about how to keep them enrolled. What the data tell us: Because these students are SO often "adults" and ALL are undergraduates, I took a look at multi-year IPEDS data on undergraduate students 25+ years of age, at the institution level. What I found was interesting: This student demographic is choosing a smaller set of institutions than ever. In 2011 - the peak year for UG adult enrollment - 75% students enrolled at 753 institutions. In 2023 75% enrolled at just 655 institutions. Nearly every one of the institutions that enrolled the greatest numbers in 2011 lost market share by 2023, with only four of the top 10 continuing to make the list in 2023. In total, 2011's leading institutions lost a more than 105,000 adult undergraduate students as of 2023.

The 10 institutions enrolling the greatest numbers of adult undergraduates in 2011 (source: IPEDs Fall Enrollment snapshot).

Which institutions dominate in 2023? SNHU, WGU, Phoenix, Grand Canyon, and UMD-Global Campus now enroll 10 percent of all adult undergrads, and all grew their market share between 2011 and 2023. What is immediately clear from this list is that large proportions of returning adults are selecting online programs - and programs that are offered by institutions that are not in their community. While both the online format and the enrollment in non-local institutions are likely contributing to some extent to the stop out numbers, that is not a reason to NOT offer such programs online.

The 10 institutions enrolling the largest numbers of adult undergraduate students in 2023 (source: IPEDs Fall Enrollment Snapshot).

The goal of institutions should be to offer undergraduate programs to returning adults that both meet their preferences for online study, but also offer the wrap around services that will increase rates of success. The combination of more support and enrolling at an institution closer to home are the foundations of success. But that is not all. Institutions must also be sure to offer: 1. Generous transfer credit policies. 2. Pre-admission (informal) transcript evaluation. 3. Wrap around services to keep them on track. 4. Programs clearly focused on career advancement/change. 5. Reduced rate tuition. Let's talk about how I could help set the course. I'm happy to take the heat on your campus when we need to say what will be required!