In 2014, the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) released its first report on what they referred to as the “Some College, No Degree” population. That report announced that there were 31 million Americans in this situation. Since then, NCS has adjusted terminology to “Some College, No Credential” which is an important shift in an era when non-degree credentials are increasingly important to the career success of millions of Americans.

Subsequent NSC reports have indicated ever-increasing numbers in this population. In 2019 it was 36 million, in 2022 it was 39 million, in 2023 it was 40 million, and in June of 2024 they reported 36.8 million, which was not a decline but rather reflected a change in methodology to only include those under the age of 65.

After the release of each of these reports, I have seen a renewed interest among institutions in figuring our how to attract some of these students. Presidents ask “how can we get our share?”, provosts ask “what will we have to offer them?", and enrollment leaders ask “how do we find them?”.

The Best Target: A critically important finding about this population was included in the 2019 report: the ultimate completion rate of these students is considerably higher when they returning having completed the equivalent of two years of college study. The report also indicated that students in that category represent about 10 percent of the entire “some college, no degree” market. So, in order to manage expectations on campus, it may be important to both “recenter” the total target population from the tens of millions to the several million.

The Fundamental Ingredient: What the president, the provost, and the enrollment VP all must know, agree on, and use political capital to realize is an extremely generous transfer credit policy. Without a generous transfer credit policy – institutions should basically accept all 100 and 200 level course credits, regardless of where it was earned. This may seem radical, it may seem to ignore the right of faculty to decide what a degree from the institution means, it may seem to put enrollment growth ahead of academic issues.

Why? This population – typically students who have tried college (several times), not finished, and likely working in relatively low paying jobs – does not have money to waste. They have accumulated 60+ credits (putting them in the optimal category) and will approach institutions expecting to have to finance another 60, not 75, 80, or 90. Each additional course they are required to take represents hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars out of their family budget. A recent study documented that a typical transfer student to a public four-year college will pay $13,000 more for their studies than a student who starts and finishes at that institution.

Articles and blogs about how much more they will be able to make over their professional lifetime will not help these students pay for their courses today. Imagine being a modestly paid, but ambitious person, seeking a better life for himself or for her family, and being told they will have to retake basic courses that they diligently took at the local community college or even at a now defunct for-profit institution. Is there any wonder that there is a rising skepticism of the value of college or that colleges really have the best interest of the student at heart?

Credit Transfer Myths: The Middle States Commission on Higher Education is taking a public stand to refute what they call misconceptions and myths (which you have to conclude mean things used on campuses to prevent more generous transfer credit policies. I know that I have heard, during discussions with campus stakeholders, that more generous transfer credit policies will: make them out of compliance with the accreditor’s expectations, or that the accreditor prevents accepting credits from various types of institutions and formats, or that the accreditor makes institutions collect too much data and jump through too many hoops, or that they are not incorporating faculty voices when looking at credit evaluation. Each of these, in the opinion of the Middle States Commission, are misconceptions if not myths and they are publicly clarifying each of these after their 2022 overhaul of their “Transfer of Credit, Prior Learning and Articulation Agreements Policy and Procedures.”

As we enter what is projected to be the first year of the two demographic cliffs that will end (in 2039) with nearly 650,000 fewer in the traditional undergraduate target population, this is an opportune time for a renewed focus on transfer acceptance policies.

My Take: When institutions ask me where they should seek student growth over the next 20 years, I point them toward: 1) more graduate students, 2) more online students, and 3) more returning adults (the some college, no credential population). But they will not be able to succeed with the last (or, by the way, the online population which predominantly enrolls with some credit) without what will often be a major “rethink” of their transfer credit policy.